Rype :: Book, Do, Charge, Collect.

Google's “Android” operating system is certainly getting it's fair share of rosy coloured predications lately. The latest comes from an analyst at Gartner who predicts that Android will overtake the iPhone, Blackberry and Windows Mobile within 3 years:

http://www.brighthand.com/default.asp?newsID=15744&news=Android+iPhone+Windows+Mobile+BlackBerry+webOS

Overtaking Windows Mobile isn't hard to imagine, especially if Microsoft can't make Windows Mobile 7 radically better than what they have at the moment, but overtaking Apple in just 3 years is going to be a pretty big challenge

The iPhone is the bomb as far as consumer space smartphones go. It's sexy, slick, delivers a fantastic user experience and has a huge and thriving developer base. A testament to this is the fact that even my wife, the most vehement of Apple haters likes “the jesus phone” and wants one.

The iPhone's market share arrived at where it is today in no small part by Apple exploiting the huge momentum of the iPod - millions of happy iPod users make for a pretty easy upsell target. Not to mention that Apple know a trick or two when it comes to marketing products to consumers.

Google's strategy is very different – they're trying to become the Microsoft of the smartphone world by offering an operating system that other companies can license and distribute. The problem is, to overtake Apple they need to have a product that is better than the iPhone in some way that matters. Professor Douglas Rushkoff believes that consumers will see the benefits of the “openness” of Android:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-10-06/googles-better-iphone/?cid=hp:beastoriginalsR1

but my gut feeling is that the average Joe couldn't give a rats about openness. Consumers want ease of use, they want fashion, any they want to be connected with their friends. In what way Google can trump Apple in these factors is really hard to say and I'm not convinced they can. However, I think Google can steal market share from Microsoft, Nokia and perhaps RIM, and who knows, maybe that will be enough to trump Apple in marketshare anyway. It's certainly going to be an interesting next few years.

To finish off this blog entry I'd like to address his royal worshipfulness Steve Jobs personally: Steve, untie the iPhone from the Mac in regards to development already! As a developer I can't tell you how much it pisses me off that I have to buy a Mac to develop for the iPhone. I love the iPhone but I don't want a Mac and it's enough to make me want to buy the Palm Pre instead. Recognise the iPhone as a platform in it's own right and make it as easy as possible for developers everywhere to write apps for it. Parents have to let go of their children if they are to grow up.